Vaccinated Counties Led Newsom to Victory
Data from the Sept. 14 recall election show a startling correlation between coronavirus vaccination rates and a county’s vote to oust or keep Gov. Gavin Newsom. Counties with higher vaccination rates were more likely to support the governor. Counties with low rates — as well some of the state’s largest transmission hot spots — were more likely to vote yes on the recall.
Size was a factor too. Smaller, rural counties have lower vaccination rates to begin with and were more likely to support the recall effort, while large metros with high rates tended to support Newsom.
In San Francisco, for instance, 75% are vaccinated and 87% supported the governor. In Los Angeles, which has a 59% vaccination rate, 71% voted against the recall.
On the flip side, Lassen County, with a 21% vaccination rate, voted overwhelmingly to kick Newsom out of office (83%). Also voting in favor of the recall were the counties of Amador, Calaveras, Mariposa, Modoc, Plumas, Sierra, Siskiyou, Tehama and Trinity. Each of them has a vaccination rate under 50%.
The data highlight the extent to which vaccination status has become a political and cultural identifier. Similar results are seen on a national scale. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, as of September 13, 2021, 52.8% of people in counties that voted for Biden were fully vaccinated compared to 39.9% in counties that voted for Trump.
